Climate Change

The revised forecasts for the expected arrival of the three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) temperature milestones do not bode well for the world climate and the expected impact of changing droughts, floods and fires on various populations and their probable, induced migrations around the world.

This update of the 2020 paper A view to permanent climate change – How the world needs to keep the threat in perspective (on this website) has been only to address the probable timeframes to reach the critical Average Surface Air Temperature Anomaly (Twi) defined by the IPCC, given new data recorded since 2020. 

The primary target temperature anomaly of 1.5°C is now predicted herein to be as soon as 2036, 2°C by 2053 and 3°C by 2088, if further rates of productions in greenhouse gases are not achieved across the world (allowing +- 10% error on timeframes).

In the enclosed file are letters to the Editor of the Canberra Times, Canberra City News and The Australian about the ongoing zeitgeist that is global warming, climate change, the related energy crisis and the debate about the sustainability of renewable energy.

Misinformation and disinformation are rife on the Internet about global warming and climate change, aided and abetted by questionable articles and letters published by the daily media.

The new federal Labor and Greens government will learn the hard way that their position on climate change and emission reduction targets are based on ideology and not on reality.

Remember! No matter what Australia does to reduce CO2 emissions, at about 1.3% of world emissions, it can have zero effect on global warming let alone climate change.

Our priority should be on climate-proofing the country and on pursuing emissions-free nuclear energy production, not wasting billions on ineffective, ideological polices at great expense to taxpayers and which can only damage our economy and standard of living. Should we be investing in horses rather than EVs?

The CSIRO recently issued its GenCost Report 2023-24, May 2024, an update of its earlier GenCost Reports.

An independent analysis of several days, wading through the voluminous report, clearly reveals its many failures to present a valid, unbiased comparison of wind and solar renewables with nuclear options available. 

Using the figures given in Table B.9 of the report, basic estimates have been adjusted to account for omissions in the report, to provide more realistic figures, in terms of cost per Kilowatt ($/Kw) of generated power capacity.  This analysis shows that the costs per Kw for large-scale nuclear are almost the same as for large-scale solar and much better than for wind.  Adjusted figures also show that nuclear SMR is marginally better than off-shore wind.  Note, however, that probable error bands (easily plus or minus 20 per cent) make nuclear options economically viable.

This analysis also shows that the current Labor government, in its implacable opposition to nuclear power, even to the lifting of the non-sensical ban on the use of nuclear power, is pursuing an ideological path rather than one in the best interests of our nation, based on economic realities.

On 20 March 2023, the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, released a video speech, following his presentation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR6 Synthesis Report on Climate Change.

His speech is very alarmist, as may be seen from statements like:

• Humanity is on thin ice — and that ice is melting fast.
• The climate time-bomb is ticking.
• It starts with parties immediately hitting the fast-forward button on their net-zero deadlines to get to global net-zero by 2050.
• No new coal, the phasing out of coal by 2030.
• Ceasing all licensing or funding of new oil and gas.
• Stopping any expansion of existing oil and gas reserves.
• We must move into warp speed climate action now. We don’t have a moment to lose.

This article comments on that report.

The adoption of Electric vehicles (EV) is accelerating in the industrialised countries of the world and is rising sharply in Australia, if off a low base.  While the viability of EVs has been dependent on the development of battery (and fuel cell) technology, a major motivation is the considerable potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, from the huge amounts produced by internal combustion engine vehicles.

With a federal election due in Australia before the end of May 2022, the major political parties have recently released their policy statements concerning EVs.

2020, 2021 and now continuing into 2022 for some time yet, has been arguably the wettest period over eastern Australia for 80 years or more.  So, what does that say about climate change?

Readers may well ask what the formal position of ALSC is on global warming and climate change. In the first instance, one should recognize that the debate is about the possibility of permanent climate change with global warming, and not about annual weather cycles. ALSC recognises most of the basic data – measured or quantified – claimed to be underlying global warming, but does not necessarily agree with the conclusions drawn from that data by climatologists.

In the heated, on-going debate on climate change, many questions have been posed in the media without adequate answers. Climatologists and readers who feel qualified, are invited to offer rational answers to questions that follow, with evidence if possible but, please, without sophistry or ideology.

The sensitivity of the Earth’s climate to increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases, especially from carbon dioxide (CO2) produced from burning fossil fuels and exacerbated by an ever-increasing world population, sits at the heart of climate science and of the debate about possible permanent climate change that has been raging around the world in recent decades.
There is so much alarm in the world today from climatologists and believers about the doomsday to come unless all governments take adequate counteraction to minimise harmful greenhouse gas emissions, especially CO2.

The debate on global warming and resultant climate change has been raging around the world for decades but has become more intense since the release of reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, the latest being the 6th Assessment Report, 7aug21, which purport to publish the projections and the scientific bases thereof.

In Australia, arguments are no less confusing to the educated and average man and woman alike. It is expected to be an important issue leading up to the federal election due before June 2022.

This 240-page document is the result of seven months of intense research and analysis of all aspects of global warming and permanent climate change, and the debate to date. The report has been lodged in the National Library electronic depository (Neds).