This document provides and discusses the latest independent cost estimates by Smart Canberra Transport and Australian Logistics Study Centre (ALSC) for ACT light rail Stages 1, 2A and 2B, based on information released to date by the ACT Government, reports in the media, other known infrastructure projects, the Web and ChatGPT, and on expert, independent life-cycle cost analysis.
This review was prompted and is appropriate, given the public announcement by Chief Minister Barr (7Mar26) that among other measures ‘to rein-in capital expenditure on infrastructure’, a decision on progress of Stage 2B, from Regatta Point to Woden town centre, would not be taken until after the 2028 ACT election. This decision followed the Eslake review in 2026 of ACT finances, commissioned by the ACT Legislative Assembly, which, among other things, criticised the funds being spent on infrastructure[1] instead of on more important projects for the community.
It updates estimates for Stage 1 (Gungahlin to Civic), in operation since April 2019, and documents them in both 2016 (contract date) and 2026 (current) prices.
It does the same for Stage 2A, currently under contract and in work since 2023, in both 2023 (contract date) and 2026 prices.
Although a decision to proceed on Stage 2B is now postponed until after the 2028 election, it is still edifying for ACT taxpayers to know the probable, huge cost of this stage and the impact it could have on ACT finances, especially given that all of light rail costs, for all stages are and would be financed by ACT debt, which is already at a serious level.
[1] The ACT’s overall public sector finances were the third or fourth-worst of all states and territories, his report stated, and a large number of capital initiatives to build or upgrade infrastructure were entirely funded by debt. Expense policy decisions, where spending was increased without a comparable increase in revenue, worsened the government’s net operating balance by at least $7.2 billion over the past decade, of which $3.6 billion occurred since 2022-23.